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We are not just implying temporary value enhancement in banks for the sake of taking advantage of potential general offer valuations. The target banks will benefit from input the potential stakeholders could bring to the table to improve stand-alone value propositions, for example AMMB Holdings Bhd-Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. We believe nimble banks such as RHB Capital Bhd and Alliance Financial Group Bhd (AFG) are ripe for M&A with new strategic shareholders, given their attractive valuations (1.5 times to 1.6 times CY11 book value) and return on equity (ROE) profiles (14% to 15%).

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak said the foreign shareholding cap for local commercial banks will be evaluated on an individual merit basis. There will be no changes to the Banking and Financial Institutions Act for now. If the foreign shareholder limit is raised to 49% from 30% currently, the move would give a positive swing to Malaysian banks, as it could potentially open doors to maintain competitiveness and new strategic partnerships, which could further enhance the value of Malaysian banks. On this note, our bets are on AFG ('buy', target price: RM3.85) and Affin Holdings (not rated).

We believe loan growth will continue to support net interest income growth amid competitive net interest margins, while non-interest income should gear up on capital market activities.

Our pick for regional Malaysian banks is Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank) ('buy', TP: RM10.80). Maybank still offers an element of positive surprises and carries Indonesia as a multi-year growth story. We also like RHB Capital ('buy', TP: RM10) for its attractive valuation and ROE profile, as well as possible M&A angle. AFG is our new small cap M&A pick ' if Langkah Bahagia exits, it could see a new strategic shareholder. ' HwangDBS Vickers Research, March 10

This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, March 11, 2011.

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发表于 2011-3-26 13:00 | 只看该作者

说是这样说，还是要自己分析为妙。马来西亚的政策很多都是说了，做了，但是没有效。第一轮合并剩下9间银行，在前几年说第二轮合并到5家“超级银行”，结果银行依然是9间。

Let us be wealth spinner.

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Good to raise foreign ownership in banks

Analysts say local banks will benefit if level is raised to 49%

KUALA LUMPUR: Local banks stand to gain via exposure and enhanced competition should the Government allow the level of foreign ownership in them, currently capped at 30%, to rise to 49%.

Analysts who spoke to StarBiz said the move would allow banks with significant foreign ownership to leverage on these links for synergistic or strategic purposes.

An analyst with a foreign brokerage said while the policy has not been made clear, the move would be positive as it would show that the local banking industry was robust and confident enough to allow foreign ownership to rise.

“This avenue will make it more attractive for foreign banks to take up stakes in local banks instead of giving out more licences for more foreign banks to set up shop here,” she pointed out.

She said more on the policy could be revealed at the Invest Malaysia conference from April 12 to April 13 or at the upcoming launch of the Financial Sector Masterplan which is expected to be unveiled in June.

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